Lockdown in Italy, 26 March 2020
Originally posted on my Facebook page on 26 March
I received a great question from a business owner wondering whether there's any guidance from the experiences in Europe to help people in Australia navigate the tough business decisions they are facing. Here is her question, and my thoughts follow (warning, long response!):
Bronwyn Victor (Planet Cycles): "One of the biggest challenges as a business owner is making decisions on the direction we should take, only to have the goal posts moved, sometimes within hours. We want to put our energy not only into making the best choices now for our families and people, but also for our long-term future in the other side of this. Just as we can see into the future for Australia regarding health by looking to Italy, are there economies on the other side of this crisis yet who we should be looking to for how to recover economically?"
These are simply my own observations and my own thoughts. The truth is we are facing a situation that has no equal in our own lifetimes.
No nation is "on the other side" yet. In fact we are all somewhere near the beginning. However I am seeing shifting mindsets about what this means for businesses, and I believe we face 3 horizons, which I am loosely calling:
1. Immediate Response
2. The Gap
3. New Normal
The one thing I believe we can learn from Europe is that we should not assume that the New Normal is just a matter of weeks or months away. In the beginning people talked about “rescheduling things to September” but now I don’t hear that language. I believe most businesses here have come to terms with the fact that the New Normal will not make its appearance this year. Each country is still in the thick of its medical response, and the truth is, even if one country comes out the other side, we have already seen that this is now global, and we will all be waiting for the last country to pass the finish line (whether by successful isolation or vaccine) before we can start life beyond COVID-19.
So the experience here would suggest to people facing Horizon 1 that it would be smart to address your current business issues with a longer term view than you might wish would be the case. The lesson from Europe is that governments will keep moving the goal posts in their efforts to arrest the spread of the virus, so don’t plan TO them, plan as if they will move 3 times further again than you thought they would. It’s the old saying: plan for the worst, hope for the best. Do what needs to be done. Do what you’ve been putting off. Don’t close your eyes and hope it all goes away. Be kind, but also be wise, courageous and decisive. This is bigger than one industry, one city, one country.
The good news is that there are industries that will face greater demand for their services and products, and there will be a demand for people in roles to support what continues to be both essential and sought after. Here, that’s workers in things such as food production, supermarkets, transport, cleaners, IT, online systems, virtual technology, home teaching support, home deliveries, catering. And I’m sure there are many more I am not seeing. I hope that the lines of people seeking new jobs might find their way to the doors of businesses that will need their willing minds.
When it comes to the New Normal, I believe it is still too far distant to define. It will be more different to the Old Normal than we ever suspected because the global interdependencies that will play out over the coming months and beyond are incredibly complex. It’s a brave person who would design a future business for that New Normal just yet. I know there are already people trying to do this, and they unfortunately put a lot of pressure on the rest of us, making us feel like we're falling behind! But I think it is premature. Our minds are not ready to leap straight there. Like every other step on this journey, we cannot see our new reality until we've moved through the ones before. I think there is a more important step right in front of us now.
The Gap is where the real magic happens. In the absence of a clear way forward and the loss of where we were, all we can do is reach out, connect and remain open to helping others. It's the best way to help ourselves. We can hone our craft and prepare our minds by being engaged with the world. We can use this time wisely and not rush blindly into something that is not what we really believe in. We can lay a foundation for a New Normal that is built on the best of who we are now and the promise of who we will become.
I am reminded of a quote that I have always loved but only now fully appreciate. I think it sums up how we might best approach the coming weeks, months, and beyond.
"A door like this has cracked open five or six times since we got up on our hind legs. It’s the best possible time to be alive, when almost everything you thought you knew is wrong."
Tom Stoppard, written in a play in 1993
